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Salutti tutti,
...another Lancair crash... and we add Chuck to the
list of fatalities, ...along with Shannon from a few weeks ago, ...and the
64 fatalities as listed in Lee Metcalfe's compilation of Lancair
crashes from the NTSB database. To which I can add three more Lancair
crashes from Downunder not listed but with fatalities, at least three and
maybe as many as six, I can't remember exactly. And then maybe there
are more out and around the world.... All in all 70 or more Lancair
fatalities in 15 years, since 1989, the start of Lee Metcalfe's
compilation.
I have in front of me some information on the
fate of the 916 German Luftwaffe F104 Starfighters; the "Widow Maker",
"Flying Coffin" etc. "During 30 years of flying there were 1,975,646
hours accumulated. The average per aircraft was 2,157 hours. A total of 292
F104s were lost in accidents with the tragic deaths of 116 pilots. That
accounts for one aircraft loss each 6,766 hours, which is a
normal value according to international standards." Meaning there was
one fatality per 17,031 hours. A standing joke from Germany from that time; "how
to catch a Starfighter? just wait, soon one will fall from the
sky..."
I have a recollection that in GA the fatality rate
is around about 1.5 fatalities per 100,000 hours, ie one fatality each
66,666 hours.
Looking at Lancairs and making making some
guesstimates; there have been more than 2,000 kits sold. Lets be really generous
and say that 1,000 kits have been completed and have flown, and lets guesstimate
that across the fleet the average total hours per aircraft is 500 then there are
500,000 Lancair flying hours divided by 70 or so fatalities equals one fatality
each 7,142 hours. Obviously if the numbers of Lancairs built and flown is
considerably less and the average flying hours also less then this statistic
skews to a considerably higher fatality rate.
Make of these numbers what you will but I
think I'd rather be flying a "Widow Maker". To conclude I just wish there
was as much interest in safe flying seminars/programs/training/park the ego at
home/engage the brain etc as George's engine cooling seminar....
Ciao, Roberto d'Italia.
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