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There's nothing like actual experience and a little cross-checking with theory to settle an issue.
When bored with building and soccer tournaments awhile back, I developed a spreadsheet that takes actual airplane performance at a particular altitude/power setting and uses basic performance theory to project numbers for other settings. For the mathematically inclined, the spreadsheet assumes particular values for propeller efficiency (85%) and Oswald efficiency (80%), determines the lift and drag coefficients from flight data and the equations for the four forces, and then uses the equations to predict numbers for other settings. I also assumed 2800 lbs and standard temperature. Small changes in these assumptions don't affect the results much. This analysis is only "approximate" for a variety of reasons. Nonetheless, it paints a remarkably consistent picture for ES performance based on numbers reported in recent posts.
In particular, recent posts provide the following the following numbers for a normally aspirated ES:
Pat: 178 KTAS @ 60% power at 6500'.
Skip: 200 KTAS @ 100% power at sea level.
Tim (Factory): 196 KTAS @ 75% power at 8000'
(I assumed Tim's numbers were for 75% power).
Remarkably, basic performance theory shows that these numbers are equivalent within 2 knots! How so? If I use Pat's numbers to infer the lift and drag coefficients, the equations for the four fources predict that Skip should see 202 KTAS at WOT at sea level and the factory should see 197 KTAS at 75% power at 8000'. These numbers are within one or two knots of the actual reports. Similarly, if I use Skip's numbers to deduce lift and drag coefficients, Pat should see 176 KTAS and the factory should see 195 KTAS at their settings. These are almost dead on. Finally, if I use the factory data to get the coefficients, then Pat should see 178 KTAS and Skip should see 202 KTAS at their settings, again within 2 knots of the reports. According to basic performance theory, the numbers are consistent!
These numbers are also consistent with the cruise numbers reported on the Lancair website. So naysayers, show me a faster normally aspirated production single. You can even retract the gear. Hope to confirm these numbers myself in a few months.
I'm happy to supply the spreadsheet if anyone is curious. It's fairly straightforward.
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