Sender: <marv@lancaironline.net> (Marvin Kaye)
To: lml
Date: Tue, 06 Aug 2002 09:13:12 -0400
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From: Brent Regan <Brent@regandesigns.com>
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Subject: Oshkosh Prevarication Awards
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Oshkosh Prevarication Awards

Friend and fellow Lancair builder Fred Moreno once observed that like 
the ancient Greek belief in the four elements of earth air fire and 
water, Oshkosh has it's own four elements. They are; Hope, Money, 
Bullshit and Denial. All the exhibitors at Airventure are composed of 
one or more of the four elements and represent a broad spectrum of human 
character. From men with strong convictions about the future of 
aviation, like Rutan or Neibauer, to men with federal convictions, like 
Zehrbach. From square piston engines to non-stick pans. From the 
eternally reinvented sky car to the never produced Zoche engine. From 
the billion dollar military bomber to the four for a dollar plastic 
toys. Oshkosh has it all.

On the "Whats New" front, every OSH seems to have a theme. Last year it 
was EFIS and before that it was Diesel engines. I find it fascinating to 
observe the year to year evolution of the new arrivals. Most perish, 
wilted by the harsh light of reality, and are quickly forgotten. Some 
remain static, eternally adolescent and full of promise but no 
performance (Zolche: It is the technology of the future, and always will 
be). Yet others seem to be ideas that migrate from soul to soul, 
infecting their hosts with the conviction that NOW is THIS ideas TIME. 
The Jaguar sports car based Aircar embodies being possessed by a concept.

My favorite, though, are the prevaricators, more about them later.

For a products business to succeed it must have three strong elements, a 
market, capable management and a solid technical implementation of the 
core invention. What we typically see in the new arrivals are the core 
inventions prior to forming a business around them. A notable exception 
is Eclipse, a company formed to create the core.

When Sierra first demonstrated their EFIS system at OSH in '98 all they 
really had was an idea and a proof of concept demonstrator. Prototype 
and primitive software running on a breadboard system built from 
commercial off the shelf (COTS) hardware. The idea was powerful, market 
was willing, business infrastructure was nascent and the technical 
implementation was nonexistent. When I came across the SFS booth at the 
show I happened to have the prototype of the CT1000 in my briefcase and 
I showed it to Nate. "I think we can help you". He agreed and a business 
relationship, and friendship, was begun.

This year I was most impressed with the Dynon EFIS-D10. They have made 
considerable technical progress since a year ago and seem to now have a 
full appreciation of the scope of the technical challenges. What is most 
impressive, and refreshing, is their honesty. They freely admit, "In 
retrospect, we were extremely optimistic about the development effort 
required for this project."
(http://www.dynondevelopment.com/docs/update020506.html) and, most 
remarkably, will not sell the product until it works as advertised. If 
these guys make it then they will have THE answer for people who need a 
glass "fix" but are monetarily challenged.

Jim Frantz's AOA stands as a prime example of an idea turned business. I 
am sure that this product has saved several lives and I was encouraged 
to see it is doing well. Jim isn't sitting on his laurels but reaching 
for the certification carrot. As a cool quaff for Tantalus the prize may 
seem just beyond reach but stay at it Jim, and you'll find your 
reward.....a whole new crop of whining customers with OLD airplanes.

I was amused to see Avadyne's new FlightMax system "look" evolve towards 
the Chelton system. I guess imitation IS the highest form of flattery. 
Glad to see that they are following the right track although I can 
imagine that loosing the Capstone contract to CFS had to sting.

There was the usual spattering of APU turbine converted to turboprop 
proudly displayed by men absolute in their conviction that they had 
managed to repeal one or more of the laws of physics, thermodynamics or 
economics. I walk up to these guys and really try to have an open mind. 
I listen politely, resisting the smirk that would trigger the paroxysm 
that would end the explanation. My reward for an open mind is a head 
full of dung.

Of particular note was the tent of Blue Mountain. I approached, 
accompanied by my friend and associate Hamid and my 11 year old son 
Matt, resolved to maintain an open mind and a objective attitude. This 
is with some effort as it has already been reported by several 
individuals that the reason given for Blue Mountains failure to appear 
in a Lancair aircraft was because Lancair employees were being paid by 
the competition to spurn Greg's advances. Wow. And to think I was so 
foolish to believe that it was because Blue Mountain hadn't publicly 
demonstrated their system in ANY flying aircraft.

On approach to the tent I spied the "presentation area" with its neat 
rows of folding chairs, podium and large flat panel monitor. I paused 
for a moment, taken by deja vu. Where had I seen this before? Of course, 
the Flymart and the no-stick cookware ware guy. Duh! OPS, objective 
attitude! Remain objective.

The great man has just concluded his presentation so we move ask the 
sales staff a few questions. Over the next several minutes the following 
discourse developed:

"How many systems do you have flying?"
"We have orders for 150 systems"
"Yes but how many are flying?"
"We have delivered about 40 systems."
"You have 40 systems flying?"
"Flying? Oh I'd say about 20 systems flying."
"Wow. Are there any here that I can see?"
"Yes"
"Where?"
"Oh, he just left." (This was Saturday)
" I see. Don't you have a factory plane?"
"Yes"
"Is it here?"
"No"
"Why not?"

Now before you read the response I wish to assure you, on my honor that 
these were the exact words given by the Blue Mountain representative 
straight faced with a serious tone. Really, I have witnesses.

"We didn't bring the company plane because we wanted to be sure there 
was enough parking for our customers."
"That was thoughtful of you" I had to hasten from the tent or risk 
soiling myself.

So that, honored judges, is my submission for this year's top honor as 
the ultimate Oshkosh Prevarication of 2002. I leave the decision in your 
capable hands.

Regards
Brent Regan