Bill,
I'm not trying to be a wet blanket here. I am going to play devils advocate.
I never had any hope for Mistral. They had some really nice looking hardware...but I do not think the market for a lycon replacement is there. Even with an STC. Even if it costs less, Even if it is "better". Who is going to take a $500K-$1million dollar airframe and risk it over a new engine company? What is the support going to be like after the sale? Who will know how to work on it? What will the resale value be? How long will the new company be around and parts be available? Just not going to happen. I wouldn't do it, and I like rotaries. I wouldn't even do it on a $100K airframe. There are a lot of airplanes cheaper than that....but why would they change? How much is an overhaul on a Lycon vs. the stc, the cost to reconfigure the whole front of the aircraft, instruments, cowl etc. What is it going to cost to get all those stcs? CRAZY! It ain't gonna fly.
The people who they have identified as their market are not interested for very sound business reasons. No matter how large the cost of the engine seems to us, compared to the other operating costs of an aircraft in a real business setting engine cost is peanuts. How much does a corporate pilot, insurance, hangar, maintenance, and fuel cost compared to an engine.......There is frankly no way they can recoup the investment that has already been put into the venture.
So that means you will have to convince an airframe manufacturer to go with you....good luck on that one. Theliert diesel has already crapped in that punch bowl and that smell is not going away for a while.
I suggest your market is car racers, airboats, marine and aircraft homebuilders-in that order. You might also look at gensets where wt matters. This is a niche product that can sustain a small 1-5 man company at best. Proceed accordingly and don't spend $5+million on development.
I do think that there may be a niche in the 200-600 hp range where a heavy fuel, light wt rotary could be competitive. Common rail, spark assist, plus big VNT turbo with air start. This would take some serious development...like $10+million for the first round to do some proof of concept testing and R&D.
Anybody want to write me a check?
Anyone?
Anyone?
;-)
Monty
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, June 11, 2010 12:41 PM
Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: Not surprised, but still disappointing...Mistral dimise
George, and Group,
I am very saddened by the demise of Mistral. I believe that there is a good market for a sound Rotary engine conversion. George, I AM listening. In fact I have been researching some net techniques that may make several "wish list" parts possible. First the basics though. We intend to make a good p-port conversion with no epoxy and proper seals on the port insert. (O-rings) The lightweight sideplates/end-housings in steel. But first I need to make a comment that I believe is CRITICAL to success. This is a comment that is the very essence of the reason why many of these ventures fail. Even ones with very good products like Mistral.
The comment is that anyone producing a new or conversion technology engine must absolutely expect it to sell for LESS than a Lycoming or Continental, otherwise there is no REASONABLE EXPECTATION that people will buy it. Some people might be enticed by a new or better technology, but never enough people to make the venture a success. My best estimate is that you will need to be profitable at a price of about 1/2 that of certified aircraft engines.
Bill Jepson