X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Received: from [162.39.147.110] (HELO pacmmta51-srv.windstream.net) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.3.7) with ESMTP id 4344765 for flyrotary@lancaironline.net; Fri, 11 Jun 2010 15:54:56 -0400 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=162.39.147.110; envelope-from=montyr2157@windstream.net Return-Path: X-WS-COS: WSOB804 X-Cloudmark-Category: Undefined:Undefined X-Cloudmark-Analysis: v=1.1 cv=c2SWAMaGf8W0pacKZ7tEZX3k7VFxRZ3AZm0JBjM+tqM= c=1 sm=0 a=EhgerxaPtAAA:10 a=Lw_SFsgOoS4A:10 a=3oc9M9_CAAAA:8 a=hodsQC1OhQ9Hn0-u_qQA:9 a=3HjparWaNMcaT1IQLSEA:7 a=80s9hL9_hgj7Z4OBAXdMAtWbrPUA:4 a=wPNLvfGTeEIA:10 a=U8Ie8EnqySEA:10 a=NBWV1mhnoyZrqgHe:21 a=B9SnmmparLy4L0F2:21 a=Ia-xEzejAAAA:8 a=jexlNra5tolb6wHqeYMA:9 a=KS8gYI8sr039tVCqOc0A:7 a=_XYV1Sz_bV4bJhzE41qQCGU6csEA:4 a=EzXvWhQp4_cA:10 a=UpHcJg0JsJ3QNDxOu1HnOg==:117 X-Cloudmark-Score: 0 Authentication-Results: pacmmta51 smtp.user=montyr2157; auth=pass (LOGIN) Received: from [98.20.128.126] ([98.20.128.126:60890] helo=newbox) by pacmmta51 (envelope-from ) (ecelerity 2.2.2.45 r()) with ESMTPA id 77/B9-25583-D64921C4; Fri, 11 Jun 2010 15:54:22 -0400 Message-ID: From: "MONTY ROBERTS" To: "Rotary motors in aircraft" References: Subject: Re: [FlyRotary] Re: Not surprised, but still disappointing...Mistral dimise Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 14:54:20 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0051_01CB0975.F8F4D690" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.5931 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.5931 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0051_01CB0975.F8F4D690 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Bill, I'm not trying to be a wet blanket here. I am going to play devils = advocate.=20 I never had any hope for Mistral. They had some really nice looking = hardware...but I do not think the market for a lycon replacement is = there. Even with an STC. Even if it costs less, Even if it is "better". = Who is going to take a $500K-$1million dollar airframe and risk it over = a new engine company? What is the support going to be like after the = sale? Who will know how to work on it? What will the resale value be? = How long will the new company be around and parts be available? Just not = going to happen. I wouldn't do it, and I like rotaries. I wouldn't even = do it on a $100K airframe. There are a lot of airplanes cheaper than = that....but why would they change? How much is an overhaul on a Lycon = vs. the stc, the cost to reconfigure the whole front of the aircraft, = instruments, cowl etc. What is it going to cost to get all those stcs? = CRAZY! It ain't gonna fly.=20 The people who they have identified as their market are not interested = for very sound business reasons. No matter how large the cost of the = engine seems to us, compared to the other operating costs of an aircraft = in a real business setting engine cost is peanuts. How much does a = corporate pilot, insurance, hangar, maintenance, and fuel cost compared = to an engine.......There is frankly no way they can recoup the = investment that has already been put into the venture.=20 So that means you will have to convince an airframe manufacturer to go = with you....good luck on that one. Theliert diesel has already crapped = in that punch bowl and that smell is not going away for a while. I suggest your market is car racers, airboats, marine and aircraft = homebuilders-in that order. You might also look at gensets where wt = matters. This is a niche product that can sustain a small 1-5 man = company at best. Proceed accordingly and don't spend $5+million on = development. I do think that there may be a niche in the 200-600 hp range where a = heavy fuel, light wt rotary could be competitive. Common rail, spark = assist, plus big VNT turbo with air start. This would take some serious = development...like $10+million for the first round to do some proof of = concept testing and R&D. Anybody want to write me a check?=20 Anyone? Anyone? ;-)=20 Monty=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: wrjjrs@aol.com=20 To: Rotary motors in aircraft=20 Sent: Friday, June 11, 2010 12:41 PM Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: Not surprised, but still = disappointing...Mistral dimise George, and Group, I am very saddened by the demise of Mistral. I believe that there is = a good market for a sound Rotary engine conversion. George, I AM = listening. In fact I have been researching some net techniques that may = make several "wish list" parts possible. First the basics though. We = intend to make a good p-port conversion with no epoxy and proper seals = on the port insert. (O-rings) The lightweight sideplates/end-housings in = steel. But first I need to make a comment that I believe is CRITICAL to = success. This is a comment that is the very essence of the reason why = many of these ventures fail. Even ones with very good products like = Mistral.=20 The comment is that anyone producing a new or conversion technology = engine must absolutely expect it to sell for LESS than a Lycoming or = Continental, otherwise there is no REASONABLE EXPECTATION that people = will buy it. Some people might be enticed by a new or better technology, = but never enough people to make the venture a success. My best estimate = is that you will need to be profitable at a price of about 1/2 that of = certified aircraft engines. Bill Jepson Houston, GSOT ------=_NextPart_000_0051_01CB0975.F8F4D690 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Bill,
 
I'm not trying to be a wet blanket = here. I am going=20 to play devils advocate.
 
I never had any hope for Mistral. They = had some=20 really nice looking hardware...but I do not think the market for a lycon = replacement is there. Even with an STC. Even if it costs less, Even if = it is=20 "better". Who is going to take a $500K-$1million dollar airframe and = risk it=20 over a new engine company? What is the support going to be like after = the sale?=20 Who will know how to work on it? What will the resale value=20 be? How long will the new company be around and parts be=20 available? Just not going to happen. I wouldn't do it, and I like = rotaries.=20 I wouldn't even do it on a $100K airframe. There are a lot of=20 airplanes cheaper than that....but why would they change? How much is an = overhaul on a Lycon vs. the stc, the cost to reconfigure the = whole front of=20 the aircraft, instruments, cowl etc. What is it going to cost to = get all=20 those stcs? CRAZY! It ain't gonna fly. 
 
The people who they have identified as = their market=20 are not interested for very sound business reasons. No matter = how large the=20 cost of the engine seems to us, compared to the other operating costs of = an=20 aircraft in a real business setting engine cost is = peanuts. How=20 much does a corporate pilot, insurance, hangar, maintenance, and fuel = cost=20 compared to an engine.......There is frankly no way they can recoup the=20 investment that has already been put into the = venture. 
 
So that means you will have to convince = an airframe=20 manufacturer to go with you....good luck on that one. Theliert diesel = has=20 already crapped in that punch bowl and that smell is not going away for = a=20 while.
 
I suggest your market is car racers, = airboats,=20 marine and aircraft homebuilders-in that order. You might also look = at=20 gensets where wt matters. This is a niche product that can sustain a = small 1-5=20 man company at best. Proceed accordingly and = don't spend $5+million on=20 development.
 
I do think that there may be a niche in = the 200-600=20 hp range where a heavy fuel, light wt rotary could be competitive. = Common rail,=20 spark assist, plus big VNT turbo with air start. This would = take some=20 serious development...like $10+million for the first round to do some = proof of=20 concept testing and R&D.
 
 Anybody want to write me a check? =
 
Anyone?
 
Anyone?
 
;-) 
 
Monty 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 wrjjrs@aol.com
Sent: Friday, June 11, 2010 = 12:41=20 PM
Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: Not = surprised,=20 but still disappointing...Mistral dimise

George, and Group,
 
 I am very saddened by the demise of Mistral. I believe that = there=20 is a good market for a sound Rotary engine conversion. George, I AM = listening.=20 In fact I have been researching some net techniques that may make = several=20 "wish list" parts possible. First the basics though. We intend to make = a good=20 p-port conversion with no epoxy and proper seals on the port insert. = (O-rings)=20 The lightweight sideplates/end-housings in steel. But first I need to = make a=20 comment that I believe is CRITICAL to success. This is a comment that = is the=20 very essence of the reason why many of these ventures fail. Even ones = with=20 very good products like Mistral.
 The comment is that anyone producing a new or conversion = technology=20 engine must absolutely expect it to sell for LESS than a Lycoming or=20 Continental, otherwise there is no REASONABLE EXPECTATION that people = will buy=20 it. Some people might be enticed by a new or better technology, but = never=20 enough people to make the venture a success. My best estimate is that = you will=20 need to be profitable at a price of about 1/2 that of certified = aircraft=20 engines.
 
Bill Jepson

Houston, GSOT
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