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To: flyrotary@lancaironline.net
Date: Tue, 22 May 2007 17:40:01 -0700
Subject: Re: [FlyRotary] Re: Marginal Cooling
Message-ID: <20070522.174007.4024.14.alwick@juno.com>
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From: al p wick <alwick@juno.com>


On Mon, 21 May 2007 12:18:45 -0400 Ernest Christley
<echristley@nc.rr.com> writes:
> Quite the contrary.  My fuel and brake lines have supports every 6  to
8 
> inches.  You can take full credit for that. 


Thanks, appreciate that.

> I initially jumped in with both feet trying to determine the failure  
> probability of various components, making charts to assign values to  
> failure probability and seriousness of effects.  

FMEA is often a tough one. It really helps to ignore probability and odds
of noticing fault. Just deal with "What's the flight risk when it fails".
If you do that for every item, then it's much easier. Only when done with
all the risk items, do you focus on probability. Even then, it can be a
challenge.

> 
>  We are not making hundreds or 
> thousands of an identical item.  We're a varied group, working in 
> varied 
> environments, with varied amounts of skill on various types of 
> projects.  Statistics are irrelevant when you have a sample size of  
> one.  

Wow, do I ever disagree with above statement. You can use any method of
analysis you want, it's clear there are patterns to historical failures.
If you have a failure, very likely it will be the same root cause as
others. Does cooling problem sound familiar? How about exhaust fracture?
It's almost impossible to have a failure on your plane that hasn't been
discovered by someone else in the past. Particularly if you look at
"other" causes, not just the one cause that's obvious. The key to
preventing failures on our planes is to analyze past issues, complaints,
and take effective action. This is tough to accomplish though, only
because we live our entire lives making decisions based on feelings,
familiarity. We are naturally ineffective at problem solving and are
clueless. Tell me the last time you solved any problem and actually
measured how effective the solution was? Further, when was the last time
you measured the results and tried more than one solution? 

regards


-al wick
Cozy IV powered by Turbo Subaru 3.0R with variable valve lift and cam
timing. 
Artificial intelligence in cockpit, N9032U 240+ hours from Portland,
Oregon
Glass panel design, Subaru install, Prop construct, Risk assessment info:
http://www.maddyhome.com/canardpages/pages/alwick/index.html