Bryan asked:

I don't even feel good about asking this. But the thought popped into my head the other day.
Has anyone come up with a percentage number or odds that you could have a fatal accident in a lancair over a given amount of hours in it? Or for each time you take to the sky?
Example: you fly X number of hours in a 300 series. Your chances of having a fatal in it accident in that time is???


Bryan,
Jeff Edwards will likely present a forum on this at AirVenture at the end of the month. If you've not made one of these, I'd suggest it as most informative!

The risk information you seek is not the "straight line" projection you might be thinking. The accident experience suggests that your likelihood (as the pilot) of having a fatal accident in a Lancair decreases on almost a logarithmic scale as you accumulate time. In other words Your most likely window for a fatal accident is 0-10 hours of Lancair flight time; by the time you have 2,000 hours (and there are several who do), your likelihood is almost zero. I believe that Tony Durizzi was the only pilot killed in a Lancair that had more than 1000 flight hours in Lancairs. Does anyone have updates to this??

This is actually an encouragement to go fly as much as possible, for both fun and to reduce the likelihood you'll have an accident... :-)

Bob