The inherent fallacy of this approach is that it assumes that each time we
depart on a flight we roll the dice to see if we are going to die. In a very
high percentage (I don't know exact numbers) of the fatal accidents in
Lancairs the results would have been very different if the PIC had made
different decisions and/or taken different actions.

Many of us have heard the statistic that four out of five small businesses
fail within five years. A mentor explained to me that I should choose to
make my business the one out of five that succeeds.

A study of historical Lancair accident rates would be only that - history.
To a large extent (in this context at least) all of us can choose which
statistic we want to be.

The data is out there. NTSB has a very large and detailed database. It is
somewhat difficult to separate Lancairs or specific Lancair models due to
inconsistencies in how that information is entered. I understand that LOBO
or someone in LOBO (Jeff Edwards?) has compiled/extracted a lot of data on
the subject.

Jay

-----Original Message-----
From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of Bryan
Wullner
Sent: Thursday, June 30, 2011 4:51 AM
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Subject: [LML] Odds of......

I don't even feel good about asking this. But the thought popped into my
head the other day.
Has anyone come up with a percentage number or odds that you could have a
fatal accident in a lancair over a given amount of hours in it? Or for each
time you take to the sky?
Example: you fly X number of hours in a 300 series. Your chances of having a
fatal in it accident in that time is???

Any data like this out there?? Can it even be determined. I imagine it could
or insurance companies must have this data.
Bryan
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