X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2011 07:45:55 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from mail-iw0-f180.google.com ([209.85.214.180] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.4.0) with ESMTPS id 5039154 for lml@lancaironline.net; Fri, 01 Jul 2011 01:26:22 -0400 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=209.85.214.180; envelope-from=vonjet@gmail.com Received: by iwn9 with SMTP id 9so4862147iwn.25 for ; Thu, 30 Jun 2011 22:25:45 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.231.114.226 with SMTP id f34mr2578740ibq.30.1309497944641; Thu, 30 Jun 2011 22:25:44 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.231.33.133 with HTTP; Thu, 30 Jun 2011 22:25:44 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: X-Original-Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2011 22:25:44 -0700 X-Original-Message-ID: Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Odds of...... From: Bryan Wullner X-Original-To: Lancair Mailing List Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=0016e6475fcad312a604a6fb3ff7 --0016e6475fcad312a604a6fb3ff7 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Thanks, everyone, for the responses. It was just something that popped into my head. Actually I was in my airplane when it happened. Couldn't help it. But the question in my mind was.....I wonder what the odds are that a person would have an accident in a lancair for each time they take a flight in one??? Thats why I posted it. I'm not going to be dissapointed if I never get an answer!!. LOL. Bryan On Thu, Jun 30, 2011 at 4:10 PM, Jay Phillips wrote: > The inherent fallacy of this approach is that it assumes that each time we > depart on a flight we roll the dice to see if we are going to die. In a > very > high percentage (I don't know exact numbers) of the fatal accidents in > Lancairs the results would have been very different if the PIC had made > different decisions and/or taken different actions. > > Many of us have heard the statistic that four out of five small businesses > fail within five years. A mentor explained to me that I should choose to > make my business the one out of five that succeeds. > > A study of historical Lancair accident rates would be only that - history. > To a large extent (in this context at least) all of us can choose which > statistic we want to be. > > The data is out there. NTSB has a very large and detailed database. It is > somewhat difficult to separate Lancairs or specific Lancair models due to > inconsistencies in how that information is entered. I understand that LOBO > or someone in LOBO (Jeff Edwards?) has compiled/extracted a lot of data on > the subject. > > Jay > > -----Original Message----- > From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of > Bryan > Wullner > Sent: Thursday, June 30, 2011 4:51 AM > To: lml@lancaironline.net > Subject: [LML] Odds of...... > > I don't even feel good about asking this. But the thought popped into my > head the other day. > Has anyone come up with a percentage number or odds that you could have a > fatal accident in a lancair over a given amount of hours in it? Or for each > time you take to the sky? > Example: you fly X number of hours in a 300 series. Your chances of having > a > fatal in it accident in that time is??? > > Any data like this out there?? Can it even be determined. I imagine it > could > or insurance companies must have this data. > Bryan > -- > For archives and unsub > http://mail.lancaironline.net:81/lists/lml/List.html > > > -- > For archives and unsub > http://mail.lancaironline.net:81/lists/lml/List.html > --0016e6475fcad312a604a6fb3ff7 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks, everyone, for the responses. =A0It was just something that popped i= nto my head. Actually I was in my airplane when it happened.=A0
Couldn&= #39;t help it. But the question in my mind was.....I wonder what the odds a= re that a person would have an accident in a lancair for =A0each time they = take a flight in one??? =A0
Thats why I posted it. I'm not going to be dissapointed if I never= get an answer!!. =A0LOL.
Bryan







On Thu, Jun 30, 2011 at 4:10 PM, Jay Phillips <jayph@fastairplane.net> wr= ote:
The inherent fallacy of this approach is that it assumes that each time we<= br> depart on a flight we roll the dice to see if we are going to die. In a ver= y
high percentage (I don't know exact numbers) of the fatal accidents in<= br> Lancairs the results would have been very different if the PIC had made
different decisions and/or taken different actions.

Many of us have heard the statistic that four out of five small businesses<= br> fail within five years. A mentor explained to me that I should choose to make my business the one out of five that succeeds.

A study of historical Lancair accident rates would be only that - history.<= br> To a large extent (in this context at least) all of us can choose which
statistic we want to be.

The data is out there. NTSB has a very large and detailed database. It is somewhat difficult to separate Lancairs or specific Lancair models due to inconsistencies in how that information is entered. I understand that LOBO<= br> or someone in LOBO (Jeff Edwards?) has compiled/extracted a lot of data on<= br> the subject.

Jay

-----Original Message-----
From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of Bryan
Wullner
Sent: Thursday, June 30, 2011 4:51 AM
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Subject: [LML] Odds of......

I don't even feel good about as= king this. But the thought popped into my
head the other day.
Has anyone come up with a percentage number or odds that you could have a fatal accident in a lancair over a given amount of hours in it? Or for each=
time you take to the sky?
Example: you fly X number of hours in a 300 series. Your chances of having = a
fatal in it accident in that time is???

Any data like this out there?? Can it even be determined. I imagine it coul= d
or insurance companies must have this data.
Bryan
--
For archives and unsub http://mail.lancaironline.net:81/lists/lml/L= ist.html


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For archives and unsub http://mail.lancaironline.net:81/lists/lml/L= ist.html

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