X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Mon, 05 May 2014 07:11:05 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from nskntmtas06p.mx.bigpond.com ([61.9.168.152] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 6.0.9e) with ESMTP id 6856824 for lml@lancaironline.net; Fri, 02 May 2014 20:56:04 -0400 Received-SPF: none receiver=logan.com; client-ip=61.9.168.152; envelope-from=john@jjts.net.au Received: from nskntcmgw09p ([61.9.169.169]) by nskntmtas06p.mx.bigpond.com with ESMTP id <20140503005526.FBRA7536.nskntmtas06p.mx.bigpond.com@nskntcmgw09p> for ; Sat, 3 May 2014 00:55:26 +0000 Received: from [192.168.15.26] ([110.142.219.220]) by nskntcmgw09p with BigPond Outbound id xCvN1n00M4luXCm01CvPDG; Sat, 03 May 2014 00:55:26 +0000 X-Authority-Analysis: v=2.0 cv=MJjiabll c=1 sm=1 a=6xIvA0WTx9AVOJiHBW+VeQ==:17 a=fS4xg2TqOVMA:10 a=p1UzArTQ6sUA:10 a=mCSqThwqAAAA:8 a=7FjXhIFjAAAA:8 a=BfLHyl86JgKojA-Ebr0A:9 a=wPNLvfGTeEIA:10 a=rnYgdqcAs4AA:10 a=WQTVc8ZpD5kMcowJeNkA:9 a=_W_S_7VecoQA:10 a=frz4AuCg-hUA:10 a=cYWBEGiXJQwA:10 a=-r7UpkMLAUXHvemq:21 a=6xIvA0WTx9AVOJiHBW+VeQ==:117 User-Agent: Microsoft-MacOutlook/14.4.1.140326 X-Original-Date: Sat, 03 May 2014 08:55:20 +0800 Subject: Re: [LML] P-38's and Legacy Canopys From: John Smith X-Original-To: Lancair Mailing List X-Original-Message-ID: Thread-Topic: [LML] P-38's and Legacy Canopys References: In-Reply-To: Mime-version: 1.0 Content-type: multipart/alternative; boundary="B_3481952125_306430" > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. --B_3481952125_306430 Content-type: text/plain; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable A reaction to prior post=8A. "=8A=8A=8Aspending a bunch and time and money fix ing a problem that may not exist, we really need to gather data, real hard data." Problem that may not exist=8A..? Really need hard data? Why don=B9t we start at the top of the tree? 3 known fatal events due fligh= t with an open canopy (at the time that I looked at all this a few months ago); this equates to around 1 in 100,000 take-offs. That=B9s appalling. Anyone think otherwise? These events also happen to account for around 10% of Legacy related fatals= . If increasing awareness of this possibility and of simple practical procedures and systems to reduce the risk are available, why not do it? I=B9m all ears! I=B9ll be honest =AD the only way I found about what could happen with the canopy was when I did my transition training in 2008 with Bob Jeffries in N199L =AD if he hadn=B9t told me about this, I most likely would have never known and consequently wouldn=B9t have installed the dual position / latch warning system in XTZ before I first flew the aircraft. And then, it was the public discussion mainly on this forum that followed Gerry Gould=B9s accident that finally yielded reports (and in effect a procedure for) of successful flight and landing with the canopy open. I am very grateful that I and others now have the knowledge of what has worked. We never had that information as a community before =AD or at least it wasn=B9t out there for all to benefit from. This accident triggered an immediate upgrade of my canopy alarm from a simple warning light to include large red flashing warnings on both EFIS screens, audible alarm, and writing up canop= y open procedures (pre-airborne, and post-airborne) into my POH. A few simple steps get us closer and potentially beyond what I understand t= o be a minimum GA target for fatal events of 1 in 1,000,000. They are all, along with the relative (indicative) benefits, documented in Valin=B9s report= . Why strive to prevent that very useful information getting out there?? I just wish others who have not survived a canopy open event had been able to receive Valin=B9s paper before those accidents occurred, and especially Gerry Gould who was the pilot of the Legacy that crashed at Geraldton =AD Gerry was an experienced pilot who used his Legacy routinely to get from =B3a= =B2 to =B3b=B2 for his business in Australia=B9s northwest, yet what followed on 18 September last year started with a simple error. The final report of this accident will be quite comprehensive and I think is about to be released, but in meantime refer: http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2013/aair/ao-2013= - 158.aspx BTW =AD the figure of =B3around 1 in 100,000=B2 comes from some assumptions below= . I accept not "hard research quality data", but given the goal of getting a feel for the stats on this, I felt the assumptions are probably OK for the current purpose. My approach was to assume a pro-rata time introduction of Legacies over a period of 10 years. In other words, based on numbers below 35 in Yr 1, another 35 in Yr 2, and other 35 in Yr 3 and so on. Of course that=B9s not what actually happened, but to get a feel for the risk of this event, I think that=B9s good enough. Irrespective of what a calculated risk value might be, 3 fatal events - some or all that could well have been avoided with some more broadly available knowledge - is 3 too many. =20 Event =3D "Flight occurs with canopy unlocked and leads to a fatality" =20 No. recorded events 3 No. Legacy's flown 350 Years in operation 10 Flight years 1925 Avg. take-off/yr 50 Total take-off to date 96250 Frequency of canopy open fatalties 3.12E-05 REF =20 This is a "Reference event frequency"(REF) assuming all past events occurred with aircraft / pilots:- - no alarm system=20 - critical check lists not used - abort procedure not acknowldged - no predefined / rehearsed canopy open flight procedure - no proven flight procedure "available" =20 =20 Regards, John =20 John N G Smith Tel / fax: +61-8-9385-8891 Mobile: +61-409-372-975 Email: john@jjts.net.au --B_3481952125_306430 Content-type: text/html; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable
A reaction to prior post…. =  "………spending a bunch and time and money fix ing a problem that may not= exist, we really need to gather data, real hard data."

Problem that may not exist…..?   Really need hard data?

Why d= on’t we start at the top of the tree?   3 known fatal events due = flight with an open canopy (at the time that I looked at all this = a few months ago); this equates to around 1 in 100,000 take-offs. That&= #8217;s appalling. Anyone think other= wise?

These events also happen to account for around 10% of Legacy related fatals= .  If increasing = awareness of this possibility and of simple practical procedures and systems= to reduce the risk are available, why not do it? I’m all ea= rs!

<= div>I’ll be honest –&n= bsp;the only way I found about what could happen with the canopy was wh= en I did my transition training in 2008 with Bob Jeffries in N199L = ;– if he hadn’t told me about this, I most likely woul= d have never known and consequently wouldn’t have installed the dual p= osition / latch warning system in XTZ before I first flew the aircraft.

And then, it was the public discussion mainly on this forum that = followed Gerry Gould’s accident that finally yielded reports (and in e= ffect a procedure for) of successful flight and landing with the canopy open= . I am very grateful that I and others now have the know= ledge of what has worked. We never had that information as a community = before – or at least it wasn’t out there for all to be= nefit from. This accident triggered an immediate upgrade of my canopy a= larm from a simple warning light to include large red flashing warnings on b= oth EFIS screens, audible alarm, and writing up canopy open procedures (pre-= airborne, and post-airborne) into my POH.

A few simple steps get us closer and potentially beyond what I = understand to be a minimum = GA target for fatal events of 1 in 1,000,000. They are all, along with the r= elative (indicative) benefits, documented in Valin’s report.  Why= strive to prevent that very useful information getting out there??

I&n= bsp;just wish others who have not survived a canopy open event had been able= to receive Valin’s p= aper before those accidents occurred, and especially Gerry Gould who was the pilot of the Legacy that c= rashed at Geraldton – Gerry was an experienced pilot who used his= Legacy routinely to get from “a” to “bR= 21; for his business in Australia’s northwest, yet what followed on 18= September last year started with a simple error. The final report of this a= ccident will be quite comprehensive and I think is about to be released= , but in meantime refer:   http://www.atsb.gov.au/publicati= ons/investigation_reports/2013/aair/ao-2013-158.aspx


BTW &= #8211; the figure of “around 1 in 100,000” comes from = some assumptions below. I accept not "hard research quality data", but = given the goal of getting a feel for the stats on this, I felt the assu= mptions are probably OK for the current purpose. My approach was to ass= ume a pro-rata time introduction of Legacies over a period of 10 years.= In other words, based on numbers below 35 in Yr 1, another 35 in Yr 2,= and other 35 in Yr 3 and so on. Of course that’s not what actually ha= ppened, but to get a feel for the risk of this event, I think that̵= 7;s good enough. Irrespective of what a calculated risk value might be,= 3 fatal events - some or all that could well have been avoided with some mo= re broadly available knowledge - is 3 too many.

<= div>


=
Event =3D "Flight occurs with canopy unlocked and leads to a fatality"
         
No. recorded events   3    
No. Legacy's flown   350    
Years in operation   10    
Flight years   1925    
Avg. take-off/yr   50    
Total take-off to date=   96250    
Frequency of canopy open fatalties 3.12E-05 REF  
         
This is a "Reference event frequency"(REF) assuming all past events occurred with aircraft / pilots:-
- no alarm system       
- critical check lists not used      
- abort procedure not acknowldged      
- no predefined / rehearsed canopy open flight procedure    
- no proven flight procedure "available"    
         
         
Regards,

John
John N G Smith
Tel / fax:    +61-8-9385-8891
Mobile:      +61-409-372-975
Email:         john@jjts.net.au --B_3481952125_306430--