X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 16:44:15 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from bay0-omc3-s21.bay0.hotmail.com ([65.54.190.159] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 6.0.5) with ESMTP id 6310328 for lml@lancaironline.net; Thu, 06 Jun 2013 05:21:33 -0400 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=65.54.190.159; envelope-from=peterpawaviation@hotmail.com Received: from BAY152-W23 ([65.54.190.188]) by bay0-omc3-s21.bay0.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(6.0.3790.4675); Thu, 6 Jun 2013 02:21:00 -0700 X-TMN: [UPwj2V/9BqiF/cMARoAcYD/Big5xLXFU] X-Originating-Email: [peterpawaviation@hotmail.com] X-Original-Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: peterpawaviation@hotmail.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="_3da4fdcf-d23f-4327-935a-89617e71083f_" From: PETER WILLIAMS X-Original-To: "lml@lancaironline.net" Subject: ACCIDENT RATE X-Original-Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2013 05:20:59 -0400 Importance: Normal MIME-Version: 1.0 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jun 2013 09:21:00.0071 (UTC) FILETIME=[28943B70:01CE6297] --_3da4fdcf-d23f-4327-935a-89617e71083f_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Accident rates were discussed in the LOBO Apr 2013 issue. the author assumed that the fleet average for Lancairs is 100 hours a year. when i look at airplanes for sale i see one airplane that exceeds 100 hour= s a year and the rest averaged together come out to about 30 hours a year. the author assumed that the whole fleet = of Lancairs was flying=3B none were out of license nor down for repairs. i believe it would be more accurate to suggest that the fleet average was 3= 3 hours per year. if that is the case the accidents per 100=2C000 hours wou= ld have to be tripled to 15 fatal accidents per 100=2C000 the General Aviation rate seems to be 1 fatal accident per 100=2C000=3B but= lets assume that the same low utility applies to=20 general aviation=2C then their rate becomes 3 fatal accidents per 100=2C000 so we=2C Lancair Pilots=2C are five times more likely to kill ourselves or = others that the Cessna 172 or Bonanza pilots. sobering=2C peter=20 = --_3da4fdcf-d23f-4327-935a-89617e71083f_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Accident rates were discussed in= the LOBO Apr 2013 issue.

the author assumed that the fleet average = for Lancairs is 100 hours a year.
when i look at airplanes =3B for s= ale i see one airplane that exceeds 100 hours a year and the rest averaged = together
come out to about 30 hours a year. the author assumed that the = whole fleet of Lancairs was flying=3B none were out of license nor down for= repairs.

i believe it would be more accurate to suggest that the fl= eet average was 33 hours per year. if that is the case the accidents per 10= 0=2C000 hours would have to be tripled to

15 fatal accidents per 100= =2C000

the General Aviation rate seems to be 1 fatal accident per 10= 0=2C000=3B but lets assume that the same low utility applies to
general= aviation=2C then their rate becomes

3 fatal accidents per 100=2C000=

so we=2C Lancair Pilots=2C are five times more likely to kill ourse= lves or others that the Cessna 172 or Bonanza pilots.

sobering=2C
peter
= --_3da4fdcf-d23f-4327-935a-89617e71083f_--