X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2008 23:07:49 -0500 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from [69.146.254.20] (HELO arilabs.net) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.2.10) with ESMTP id 3286317 for lml@lancaironline.net; Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:33:10 -0500 Received-SPF: none receiver=logan.com; client-ip=69.146.254.20; envelope-from=Kevin@arilabs.net Content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----_=_NextPart_001_01C9444D.63ABAFF2" Subject: RE: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.5 X-Original-Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:32:35 -0700 X-Original-Message-ID: <7141427652BB3049A7DBF1084B67805B1E2C40@penumbra.arilabs.net> X-MS-Has-Attach: yes X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Thread-Index: AclDlfTcw3NC51xYREmxvHPFmXAK1AAtyRfQ From: "Kevin Stallard" X-Original-To: "Lancair Mailing List" This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------_=_NextPart_001_01C9444D.63ABAFF2 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----_=_NextPart_002_01C9444D.63ABAFF2" ------_=_NextPart_002_01C9444D.63ABAFF2 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Correct interpretation is critical, because that is what are decisions are based on, yes thanks for the numbers and let's keeping quibbling, we need to understand them. The conversation is good for us all =20 Kevin ________________________________ From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of John Hafen Sent: Monday, November 10, 2008 5:39 PM To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs =20 Jeff: Thanks for the numbers. Numbers don't lie. They just are. Intelligent people will pay attention, rather than quibble. Keep up the good work. John Hafen On 11/9/08 4:10 PM, "vtailjeff@aol.com" wrote: Rick, You have great points. Unfortunately we spend millions of dollars on the FAA data and don't get much bang for the buck. Here is an interesting statistic I did last year on the medical certificate issue for a comment I submitted the third class medical NPRM.=20 Which group of pilots have fewer per capita medically related accidents? a. Pilots with medical certificates b. Pilots without medical certificates Answer is b. Pilots without medical certificates (glider pilots, balloon pilots) have fewer medically related accidents.=20 I asked the aviation medical panel at SNF why Private airplane pilots needed medical certificates and their answer was that they used this argument to support the light sport certificate no medical requirement. Unfortunately they could not extend the same logic to the third class medical although they just upped the third class to five years for those under 40 (but not changing a thing for the over 40 crowd).=20 Remember it is the FAA and their motto is "it does not have to make sense" ;) Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Rick Titsworth To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 8:51 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs All good info. But, as usually, we must be careful with the inferences from mis-used/mis-applied statistics. To relate that private pilots make up 35% of the total pilot population and 48% of GA accidents is pretty useless by itself. =20 i.e. What percentage of airline and/or commercial flight accidents are attributed private pilots? Of course the answer is zero. That's because the population of all airline/commercial pilots and the population of all GA pilots are not the same. Thus, relating the % of GA pilot type accidents to the type % of the total pilot population (GA, commercial, and airline) is on the surface inconclusive and perhaps mis-leading. =20 It could easily be that 60% of all GA pilots are private pilots and when associated with the 48% private pilot accident statistic above leads to the opposite conclusion that, in aggregate, the private pilots are actually less likely to be correlated with the accident rate (generally fly in better weather on local flights, etc). =20 I'm all for ratings and training - but Jeff said "food for thought" - so I couldn't help but comment. =20 ________________________________ From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net < mailto:lml@lancaironline.net?> ] On Behalf Of vtailjeff@aol.com Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 7:09 PM To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Here is more food for thought.=20 Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Giffen Marr To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 7:07 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Jeff What is the vertical scale?? Giff =20 From: vtailjeff@aol.com [ mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com ]=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 7:03 PM To: lml@lancaironline.net =20 Subject: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Here is a pretty sobering chart. Jeff ________________________________ McCain or Obama? Stay up to date on the latest from the campaign trail with AOL News < http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212075880x1200752631/aol?redir=3D= http://news.aol.com/elections?ncid=3Demlcntusnews00000001> .=20 =20 ________________________________ Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse with the Games Toolbar - Download Now! < http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212904500x1200818240/aol?redir=3D= http://toolbar.aol.com/games/download.html?ncid=3Demlweusdown00000004> =20 ________________________________ Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse with the Games Toolbar - Download Now! < http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212904500x1200818240/aol?redir=3D= http://toolbar.aol.com/games/download.html?ncid=3Demlweusdown00000004> =20 ------_=_NextPart_002_01C9444D.63ABAFF2 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Re: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

Correct interpretation is critical, because that is what are decisions are based on, yes thanks for the = numbers and let’s keeping quibbling, we need to understand them.  The = conversation is good for us all

 

Kevin

From: = Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of John Hafen
Sent: Monday, November = 10, 2008 5:39 PM
To: = lml@lancaironline.net
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety = in our Community of Lancairs

 

Jeff:

Thanks for the numbers.

Numbers don’t lie.  They just are.  Intelligent people = will pay attention, rather than quibble.

Keep up the good work.

John Hafen


On 11/9/08 4:10 PM, "vtailjeff@aol.com" <vtailjeff@aol.com> = wrote:

Rick,

You have great points. Unfortunately we spend millions of dollars on the = FAA data and don't get much bang for the buck. Here is an interesting = statistic I did last year on the medical certificate issue for a comment I submitted = the third class medical NPRM.

Which group of pilots have fewer per capita medically related = accidents?

a. Pilots with medical certificates

b. Pilots without medical certificates

Answer is b. Pilots without medical certificates (glider pilots, balloon pilots) have fewer medically related accidents.
 I asked the aviation medical panel  at SNF why Private = airplane pilots needed medical certificates and their answer was that they used = this argument to support the = light sport certificate no medical requirement. Unfortunately they could not extend = the same logic to the third class medical although they just upped the third = class to five years for those under 40 (but not changing a thing for the over = 40 crowd).

Remember it is the FAA and their motto is "it does not have to make sense" ;)


Jeff



-----Original Message-----
From: Rick Titsworth <rtitsworth@mindspring.com>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 8:51 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

All good info.  But, as usually, we = must be careful with the inferences from mis-used/mis-applied statistics.
To relate that private pilots make up 35% of the total pilot population = and 48% of GA accidents is pretty useless by itself.
 
i.e. What percentage of airline and/or commercial flight accidents are = attributed private pilots?  Of course the answer is zero.  That’s = because the population of all airline/commercial pilots and the population of = all GA pilots are not the same.  Thus, relating the % of GA pilot type = accidents to the type % of the total pilot population (GA, commercial, and = airline) is on the surface inconclusive and perhaps mis-leading.
 
It could easily be that 60% of all GA pilots are private pilots and when associated with the 48% private pilot accident statistic above leads to = the opposite conclusion that, in aggregate, the private pilots are actually = less likely to be correlated with the accident rate (generally fly in better = weather on local flights, etc).
 
I’m all for ratings and training – but Jeff said “food = for thought” – so I couldn’t help but comment.
 

From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net = <mailto:lml@lancaironline.net?&= gt; ] On Behalf Of vtailjeff@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, November = 06, 2008 7:09 PM
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety = in our Community of Lancairs

Here is more food for thought.

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: Giffen Marr <gamarr@charter.net>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 7:07 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs
Jeff
What is the vertical scale??
Giff
 
From: = vtailjeff@aol.com <mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com> =  [mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com <mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com?> ] =
Sent: Tuesday, November = 04, 2008 7:03 PM
To: lml@lancaironline.net <mailto:lml@lancaironline.net>= ;
Subject: Safety in our = Community of Lancairs

Here is a pretty sobering chart.

Jeff

McCain or Obama? Stay up to date on the latest from the campaign trail with = AOL News = <http:= //pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212075880x1200752631/aol?redir=3Dhttp= ://news.aol.com/elections?ncid=3Demlcntusnews00000001> .
 

Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse with = the Games Toolbar - Download Now! <http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212904500x1200818240/aol?= redir=3Dhttp://toolbar.aol.com/games/download.html?ncid=3Demlweusdown0000= 0004>  

Instant access to the = latest & most popular FREE games while you browse with the Games Toolbar - = Download Now! <http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1212904500x1200818240/aol?= redir=3Dhttp://toolbar.aol.com/games/download.html?ncid=3Demlweusdown0000= 0004>  

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