Sender: <marv@lancaironline.net> (Marvin Kaye)
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Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 16:46:24 -0400
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Subject: [LML] Another Slice of the Accident Stats
Thread-Topic: [LML] Another Slice of the Accident Stats
Thread-Index: AcScCb6TrTgc78I7Ssm0UrM/KKKQZA==
From: "Metcalfe, Lee, AIR" <Lee.Metcalfe@jocogov.org>

Based on some of the observations you folks have made, I went back and
sliced the data with a different criteria.  I categorized all the
accidents where the ultimate result was an uncontrolled collision with
the ground.  I did not count botched landings on runways or
crash-landings where the aircraft appeared to be under control until
contact with the ground or an obstacle in the landing area (good
approach to a bad landing area).  I did count loss of control on
take-off and loss of control in IMC, including in-flight break-ups.  I
did not count VFR into IMC resulting in apparent CFIT, although both of
those could have been stall-spins or death spirals rather than CFIT, and
I didn't count the poor guy who got so excited about flying his little
hot-rod he had a heart attack (sorry, ex-military pilot black humor).

So what I came up with is that 31% of all accidents (29 out 93) resulted
in uncontrolled collision with the ground.  Of those, 86% (25 out of 29)
were fatal, and accounted for 76% of all fatal accidents.  Said another
way, uncontrolled collision with the ground accounts for 31% of the
accidents but 76% of the fatals.  (I wonder if that isn't terribly
different from the certified world.)

So the solution is simple.  Always be in control of your airplane when
close to the ground.

"Flying is not inherently dangerous, but to an even greater extent than
the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity, or
neglect" - anon, quotation familiar to all aviators.

FWIW

Moondog