Jeff,

That wasn't really logic, just me thinking out loud, via my keyboard.  I'm an engineer and a fair chunk of my time is spent solving problems by examining data.  Looking at the same data through different filters can provide additional insight.  My take on this is that pilots with more time in type are less likely to have accidents, and while the data you presented supports this some additional information might improve the confidence level of that statement as well as providing a feel as to how much less likely. On the other hand I could be full of crap or the extra information might not be significant.  You never know until you check it out.

I agree with whoever said these guys aren't safe pilots because they have 1000 hours.  They have 1000 hours because they're safe pilots.  I think this basically means that in addition to good flying skills and knowledge they minimize risk and make good decisions.  Training can certainly help with all of those.

I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make when you say "just like rolling the dice."   When rolling dice each event is completely independent of what happened before and what comes after, unless you've got some trick dice :)  The dice don't remember what happened on the last roll, nor can they take the result of the current roll, or previous rolls, and use it to influence the next one.  Fortunately pilots can, and hopefully do, take the results of what's happened in the past and use them to reduce the risk of future flights.

Tom Gourley