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To: lml@lancaironline.net
Date: Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:11:54 -0400
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From: "Ted Noel" <tednoel@cfl.rr.com>
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In-Reply-To: <list-3084641@logan.com>
Subject: Re: [LML] Re: some thoughts on accidents
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John,

I second your comments. Please allow me to add to your confusion as to why 
we do what we do.

I am an anesthesiologist. I've lost track of the number of surgeries I've 
cancelled due to "trivial" problems. Those people had scheduled their "trip" 
way in advance, and the cancellation led to major disruptions. They all had 
"get-home-itis." They wanted to get through their surgery and get home. But 
as the referee, I blew the whistle and refused to allow them to continue, 
EVEN WHEN THEY WANTED TO ASSUME THE RISK.

Now look at Andreas Gruentzig MD. He was the cardiologist who invented 
coronary balloon angioplasty in 1977. On October 27, 1985, he flew his Beech 
Baron into cumulus granitus. He was instrument rated (not current), but 
thought as a great doctor that he could handle anything. He exemplifies why 
the V-35 was called the "V-tailed doctor killer."

Now, allow me to brag. As a low-time VFR pilot years ago, I departed Fort 
Lauderdale for Orlando in my Archer, carrying three pax. I delayed my 
departure an hour to allow weather to improve. On the second briefing, I was 
advised of a corridor to fly for good weather. I filed and departed. 
Approach was machine-gun radio traffic, and I couldn't call in on a hand-off 
to Palm Beach. All of a sudden, the windshield turned black. Rain drummed 
out all communication. I immediately executed a 180 on the gauges. After a 
few seconds, I was able to call approach. We rerouted and the flight was 
completed safely.

Now that doesn't seem like much, but it's the opposite of Gruentzig. Another 
time I sat out weather at PDK when my FBO in Orlando insisted on getting 
their plane back. I asked them how many pieces they wanted it in.

I can't explain why we demonstrate bad judgment. I can't explain how to test 
for judgment. Even with good judgment we'll lose a few. But the bottom line 
is poor judgment, and perseveration in the face of contrary conditions. (I 
used the psych term intentionally.) Anyone who can develop a valid test of 
judgment will reduce our insurance costs dramatically.

Ted Noel MD
N540TF


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Halle, John" <JJHALLE@stoel.com>
To: <lml@lancaironline.net>
Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 2:13 AM
Subject: [LML] Re: some thoughts on accidents


In the seven years (and more than 700 hrs.) that I have been a part of the 
Lancair community, I have had literally hundreds of discussions about what 
is killing Lancair pilots at a totally unacceptable rate.  I have also 
listened to presentations such as Jeff's at OSH.  We all keep agreeing that 
there is a critical problem, we generally identify correctly what it is and 
we all profess a commitment to do something about it.  But the accident rate 
continues to be way higher than it should be.  People like Joe Bartels and 
Tim Ong are frustrated beyond description but at a loss to find anything 
effective to do about it.  I suspect I can't either but, in an effort to do 
what I can, here are some thoughts generally centered around what I think 
are misperceptions that those who get into these crashes seem to have about 
their own capabilities and the capabilities of the aircraft (with apologies 
for the length.)