X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 23:59:00 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from mxsf35.cluster1.charter.net ([209.225.28.160] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.1c.2) with ESMTP id 1314037 for lml@lancaironline.net; Mon, 24 Jul 2006 15:38:31 -0400 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=209.225.28.160; envelope-from=troneill@charter.net Received: from mxip22a.cluster1.charter.net (mxip22a.cluster1.charter.net [209.225.28.152]) by mxsf35.cluster1.charter.net (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id k6OJbj3x002253 for ; Mon, 24 Jul 2006 15:37:45 -0400 Received: from 68-184-229-22.dhcp.stls.mo.charter.com (HELO axs) ([68.184.229.22]) by mxip22a.cluster1.charter.net with SMTP; 24 Jul 2006 15:37:44 -0400 X-Original-Message-ID: <003d01c6af58$a2db1f10$6501a8c0@axs> From: "terrence o'neill" X-Original-To: "Lancair Mailing List" References: Subject: Re: [LML] Re: response to Terrence O'Neill's posting... X-Original-Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 14:37:41 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_003A_01C6AF2E.B7F15240" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.2905 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2869 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_003A_01C6AF2E.B7F15240 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Barry, I checked the FAA/NTSB site, and I was wrong.=20 In terms of fatalities per aircraft hour flown, averaged over 1986 = to 2005, GenAv flew about 38,000 hours between fatalities. Air carriers = flew 118,000 hours between fatalities. rOUGHLY, 40K VS. 120K. Three = times the fatality rate -- but not ten times, as you said. GenAv had 13,846 fatalities while flying about 518 million hours; = and the air carriers had 2,317 fatalities included (... the reports = excluded some) while flying 273 million hours. Some time I'll dig out my old report, numbers which came from = Aviation Week and the Almanac, e tc. This was before computers. Not so bad for GenAv, considering their current sorry = aerodynamic-safety state, as compared to the state-of-the-art airliners, = in my opinion. I can live with flying 38,000 hours between fatalities. = That gives me about 35,000 more to go, and I'm already 76. : ) Can we now get back to some suggestions about how to make the GenAv = airplanes safer for everyone, not just the superman pilots? I think Cirrus is doing good. Being able to get rid of the gas would be = a big improvement in the fatalities rate. And I'm working on the = Lancair's pitch control and high AOA issues. Anybody got some other = ideas? And -- where'd you find the data on highway fatalities? Terrence O'Neill N211AL L235/320 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Barry Hancock=20 To: Lancair Mailing List=20 Sent: Monday, July 24, 2006 11:43 AM Subject: [LML] Re: response to Terrence O'Neill's posting... On Jul 23, 2006, at 2:43 PM, terrence o'neill wrote: The intent was to say that the airlines are not much safer than = GenAv in spite of the fact that they have all these extra benefits: Unfortunately, while I wish this was true, statistics do not bear it = out. General aviation experiences about 10 times the fatalities per = year compared to air carriers. This does not factor in that GA = (surprisingly, on the face of it) flies about twice as many total hours = as air carriers (approx. 30 million v. about 15 million) with more take = offs and landings where 50% of all accidents happen. Regardless, dead = is dead. Anecdotally, think of how many people you know or have heard of dying = in GA accidents and compare that to how many people you know have died = in airliners. I personally (thankfully) do not know of a single person = killed in an airline crash. =20 Don't tell your wives this, but statistically speaking, GA is = significantly more dangerous than driving... = http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2002-2013= / Fly safely! Barry ------=_NextPart_000_003A_01C6AF2E.B7F15240 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Barry,
    = I checked=20 the FAA/NTSB site, and I was wrong. 
 
    =  In=20 terms of fatalities per aircraft hour flown, averaged over 1986 = to 2005,=20 GenAv flew about 38,000 hours between fatalities.  Air carriers = flew=20 118,000 hours between fatalities.  rOUGHLY, 40K VS. 120K.  = Three times=20 the fatality rate -- but not ten times, as you said.
 
    = GenAv had=20 13,846 fatalities while flying about 518 million hours; and the air = carriers had=20 2,317 fatalities included (... the reports excluded some) while flying = 273=20 million hours.
 
    = Some time=20 I'll dig out my old report, numbers which came from Aviation Week and = the=20 Almanac, e tc.  This was before computers.
 
    = Not so bad=20 for GenAv, considering their current sorry aerodynamic-safety state, as = compared=20 to the state-of-the-art airliners, in my opinion.  I can live with = flying=20 38,000 hours between fatalities. That gives me about 35,000 more to go, = and I'm=20 already 76.   : )
 
    = Can we now=20 get back to some suggestions about how to make the GenAv airplanes safer = for=20 everyone, not just the superman pilots?
I think Cirrus is = doing=20 good.  Being able to get rid of the gas would be a big=20 improvement in the fatalities rate.  And I'm working on the = Lancair's pitch=20 control and high AOA issues.  Anybody got some other=20 ideas?
 
    = And --=20 where'd you find the data on highway fatalities?
 
Terrence = O'Neill
N211AL
L235/320
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Barry = Hancock=20
Sent: Monday, July 24, 2006 = 11:43=20 AM
Subject: [LML] Re: response to = Terrence=20 O'Neill's posting...


On Jul 23, 2006, at 2:43 PM, terrence o'neill wrote:

The intent was to say that the airlines are not much safer = than GenAv=20 in spite of the fact that they have all these extra=20 benefits:


Unfortunately, while I wish this was true, statistics do not bear = it=20 out.  General aviation experiences about 10 times the fatalities = per year=20 compared to air carriers.   This does not factor in that GA=20 (surprisingly, on the face of it) flies about twice as many total = hours as air=20 carriers (approx. 30 million v. about 15 million) with more take offs = and=20 landings where 50% of all accidents happen.  Regardless, dead is=20 dead.

Anecdotally, think of how many people you know or have heard of = dying in=20 GA accidents and compare that to how many people you know have died in = airliners.  I personally (thankfully) do not know of a single = person=20 killed in an airline crash.  

Don't tell your wives this, but statistically speaking, GA is=20 significantly more dangerous than driving...


http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecast= s/2002-2013/

Fly safely!


Barry



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